Cuba, Post-Castro: What Happens Now?

It's no surprise that the death of Fidel Castro has been heralded as an enormously political event with deep historic symbolism. However, it's not reasonable to expect this event to be a watershed moment that will throw Cuba off its course of liberalization of trade and investment that has been the hallmark of the government's plan over the past 10 years.

Some in the international press have described the passing of Castro as "plunging the country into a time of great uncertainty." However, from my perspective, as a Canadian lawyer with Gowling WLG who's been living and working in Havana for over two decades, I don't believe this to be the case.

While Castro's death is indeed of historical significance, and a cathartic moment for both those Cubans who support the revolution and those who are opposed to it, it won't lead to radical change or a weakening of the Cuban government. In fact, what will continue to characterize Cuba is political stability, and a continued process of economic reform and opening the country up to foreign investment.

A political transition 10 years in the making

The Cuban government has been preparing for the death of Fidel Castro for the past 10 years, ever since he almost died in 2006. And in reality, a political transition has long since taken place.

Raul Castro and an inner circle of leaders have been running the country for over a decade now. Although Fidel Castro had an indirect influence on decision-making in Cuba during that time, he had long since allowed his brother and the rest of the Cuban leadership to make the country's decisions autonomously.

Reforms not in doubt — just the pace

The Cuban leadership comprises differing points of view when it comes to reform, from those who want to speed up and deepen economic reform, to those who would be more comfortable with a slower pace of reform.

However, the collective leadership (and it is indeed a collective leadership, as Raul Castro's style of governing is based on broad consultation and institutionalization) has shown remarkable cohesion and resiliency. A focus on consensus-building and internal negotiation has ensured unity within the ranks. The result has been a balanced economic opening that has been accepted by all.

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