Council On Foreign Relations Holds a Conference Call to Discuss Mexican Drug Cartels

COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS HOLDS A CONFERENCE CALL TO DISCUSS "THE REAL WAR IN MEXICO: HOW DEMOCRACY CAN DEFEAT THE DRUG CARTELS"

JULY 1, 2009

SPEAKERS: JAMES HOGE JR., EDITOR IN CHIEF, FOREIGN AFFAIRS

SHANNON O'NEIL, SENIOR FELLOW, COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS

[*] OPERATOR: Excuse me, everyone. We now have our speakers in conference. Please be aware that each of your line is in a listen- only mode. At the conclusion of the presentation, we will open the floor for questions. At that time, instructions will be given if you would like to ask a question.

I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. James Hoge.

Mr. James Hoge, please begin.

HOGE: Thank you very much. I'm the editor of foreign affairs here at the Council on Foreign Relations. Here with me this morning for this call is Shannon O'Neil, who is the Douglas Dillon Fellow for Latin American Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations and she is also director of the CFR task force on the U.S.-Latin American relations.

In the July-August issue of Foreign Affairs, now out, Shannon has an article that is entitled -- and the title I think gives you a hint of the direction she takes in dealing with the subject -- it's called, "The Real War in Mexico: How Democracy Can Defeat the Drug Cartels." So Shannon, we might start by you fleshing out that -- as I say, indicative headline -- the thesis that you are taking in your piece.

O'NEIL: Sure, well, good morning. It's a real pleasure to be here. You know, the title does focus on what I think is actually the real issue there. You look at Mexico. And, you know, one thing that's quite uncommon -- and since Obama was elected -- Mexico has actually been one of the highest priorities on the foreign policy list, which is quite something new for this country and that has been, in large part, because of the violence and because of the increased notice and recognition of what's going on in terms of drug organizations and drug trafficking in Mexico.

You know, it started last November or December, when the Joint Command Forces'-- joined in by our men -- report came out and said that they paired Mexico and Pakistan as the two states susceptible to a rapid and sudden collapse, i.e., a failed state happening.

And then with the exiting Bush administration officials, many in their last interviews pointed to Mexico saying, "Look, Mexico could be worse than Iran. It could be worse than Iraq for the United States going forward." So this has been the focus. And then, we've also seen a huge increase in death, particularly on the border where they have been concentrated and so United States has been increasingly worried...

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