Brexit – A Guide To What Happens Next

On 23 June 2016 the UK voted in a referendum to leave the European Union. While non-binding, the new government has said that the Brexit vote will be given effect.

The immediate response in the UK to the referendum result was political chaos and an implosion of effective government and opposition. However, after the earthquake, a new government was quickly formed under Prime Minster Theresa May and a quieter period lies ahead while parliament and the country starts the process of understanding what has taken place, what has stood firm and what needs to be done to rebuild relationships within a re-constructed European settlement.

How the situation will play out is a matter of politics more than law. The EU treaties set out a mechanism (known as Article 50 of the Treaty of the European Union (also known as The Lisbon Treaty) whereby a Member State can indicate its intention to leave and, following that, there must be a negotiation of exit arrangements and the terms of a future relationship (see further below). It is for the British government to invoke this article and, until that is done and exit arrangements are finalised, the UK remains a full member of the EU with all concomitant rights and obligations and subject to the jurisdiction of the Court of Justice of the European Union. The European Communities Act 1972, which gives domestic legal effect to the UK's membership of the EU, including giving EU law precedence over UK law in the UK courts, remains in force. Significantly, the UK will have to continue to implement in full all EU law with no ability to cherry pick.

Article 50 of The Lisbon Treaty

Article 50 provides that "Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements."

In theory the outcome of the referendum does not bind the government. Having regard to the political climate, however, the resignation announcement on 24 June of David Cameron as Prime Minister and the statements of the incoming Prime Minister, it seems clear that the UK will serve notice to leave the EU. Mr Cameron said:

"The will of the British people is an instruction that must be delivered".

Article 50 requires a departing Member State to serve notice on the European Council of its intention to exit the Union and then the Union shall negotiate a withdrawal agreement with the departing Member State (the "Withdrawal Agreement") and a new relationship.

Assuming the UK government does then serve notice on...