What If...? Exploring Cause And Effect In Business

Scenario planning improves decision making and strategic

thinking. Denis Burn describes the process.

Some people liken scenario planning to 'rehearsing the

future'. Others talk about the 'entrepreneurial power of

creative foresight'. In less flowery terms, scenario planning

helps businesses to spot good opportunities and to make decisions

that will be more resilient in uncertain times.

Scenario planning was pioneered by Shell in the 1960s but since

then – a time of rapid change, increasing complexity and

rising levels of uncertainty – the technique has been

widely adopted.

Offering a number of benefits, it now underpins the plans and

decisions of many businesses. Benefits include the following.

Decisions based on scenario planning are more resilient because

cause and effect have been rehearsed.

The process builds effective teams. It is creative and

enjoyable, it exposes and...