The 'Net Zero' Debate: UK General Election 2019 (And Beyond)

Climate and energy issues are clearly very important to many voters, even if what the parties say on these issues may be unlikely ultimately to be a decisive factor in determining the outcome of the election. This is the first UK general election to take place since:

the world reached 1 degree C of warming from pre-industrial levels in 2017; the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change issued a report in October 2018 showing the importance of keeping global warming to 1.5 degrees C - which probably means achieving net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050; and the UK Climate Change Act 2008 (CCA 2008) was amended (in June 2019) to reflect a version of that 2050 net zero target (UK net emissions, as defined in that legislation, are to be "at least 100% below" 1990 levels by 2050). The target

The new CCA 2008 target was set on the recommendation of the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) in a report of May 2019. The CCC pointed out that:

current policies across the full range of relevant sectors (including energy, transport, agriculture and the built environment) are unlikely to deliver even the 80% reduction on 1990 GHG emissions required by the CCA 2008 in its original form; the way that the CCA 2008 regime currently measures net emissions does not take account of emissions for which the UK economy is responsible but which are released into the atmosphere outside its borders (emissions from international flights and shipping to and from UK destinations and from e.g. factories in other countries that make goods consumed in the UK), but it does take account of UK carbon offsetting - so far the CCC's recommendations for changes in these areas (see the report and also here) have not been implemented; it should be possible to achieve a net zero GHG emissions target by 2050 (even one that was more strictly defined to include e.g. international aviation and shipping emissions), and to do so at no greater net cost than achieving the previous 80% reduction target (up to 2% of GDP); this will, however, require massive efforts on the part of government, a range of industries, and individual consumers. The CCC divides the additional efforts on top of current policies into two categories, of "further ambition" and "speculative" options.

In the former category are things like achieving 90% low carbon heating (current level - 4%); quadrupling low-carbon power generation capacity; having all new cars and vans on the road electric by 2030 or 2035 rather than the current target of 2040; installing hundreds of thousands of public EV charging points; and a 20% reduction in consumption of beef, lamb or dairy. Carbon capture, usage and storage (CCUS) is seen as a crucial technology, supplying some of the flexible low carbon power; helping to halve emissions from industrial process heat; supplying hydrogen to use as a substitute for hydrocarbons in other industrial processes and powering trains and HGVs; and helping to generate negative emissions by combining the carbon neutral use of sustainable biomass to generate power with capture and storage of the CO2 emitted (BECCS). All the "further ambition" options together would get us to a 96% GHG emissions reduction by 2050. We would need to make some of the "speculative options" work to achieve the rest. They include deeper reductions in meat and dairy consumption (50%); direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS, at present largely experimental); limiting the increase in passenger flights to 20-40% above 2005 levels; and using synthetic carbon-neutral fuels to power aviation (a blend of hydrogen and CO2 captured from the air using DACCS). Common areas of energy and climate policy discussion

It is interesting to see how far each party is prepared to go, in manifestos that to a greater or lesser extent are aiming to sell themselves to a wide electoral audience, in confronting some of the hard choices that future governments in the UK and elsewhere will have to face if they are to meet net zero targets.

In the table below we have summarised the policies of six parties relating to energy and climate matters, as stated in their respective 2019 manifestos. We have selected the Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat, Green and Scottish National Parties, and Plaid Cymru (the Party of Wales). All were represented in the previous House of Commons, and all represent constituencies within the GB electricity and gas markets (Northern Ireland's energy markets being separate).

Energy is not a ring-fenced area...