Trump's NAFTA Pledge Threatens U.S. Expats In Canada

Donald Trump infamously called the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) "the single worst trade deal ever approved by [the United States]"1 and vowed to withdraw from the deal once elected. This policy was such a core plank of his platform that as soon as it become abundantly clear that Trump would win the U.S. election, the value of Mexican Peso relative to U.S. dollar dropped precipitously under the expectation that the U.S. would likely withdraw from NAFTA.2

Since then, much has been written about the potential economic fallout caused by Trumps pledge. However, little has been written about what might happen to Americans who are working in Canada.

The NAFTA Work Permit

Like most trade deals, NAFTA has a labour mobility provision which allows for the free flow of labour across borders. While this is nowhere near as generous as the European labour mobility rules,3 it has massively simplified the ability for Americans to work in Canada.

The NAFTA Work Permit has allowed qualifying professionals (accountants, lawyers, doctors, teachers, nurses, and scientists) to easily work in Canada without going through Canada's usually cumbersome Foreign Worker Program (FWP). Normally, under the FWP, an employer must do a Labour Market Impact Assessment (LMIA) and advertise for several months before they may extend a job offer to a non-Canadian. Under NAFTA, an employer can extend a job offer to an American and that American would then qualify for a NAFTA Work Permit. This NAFTA Work Permit gives Americans nearly the same level of access to the labour market as your typical Canadian.

If the U.S. Pulls Out of NAFTA, What Happens?

It is not clear what would happen to American workers who are in Canada on NAFTA Work Permit if the U.S. were to pull out of NAFTA.

One possibility is that the Canadian government automatically transfers everyone to a Work Permit under the old Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between Canada and the United States. FTA contains labour mobility provisions which, on the whole, are virtually identical to NAFTA, but this is not a guarantee. For one, although the FTA was never repealed, it was only suspended, it's not clear what steps will have to be taken to revive it. Would it automatically come back into force once the U.S. pulls out of NAFTA, or would it require additional steps from the U.S. and Canadian governments?

It is also not clear whether or not President Trump has any interest in maintaining the FTA. There are plenty of...