¿Vamos a Desaprovechar -una vez más- Los Altos Precios Internacionales de los Minerales?
Published date | 12 April 2022 |
Author | Miguel Ángel Soto |
Law Firm | Rubio Leguía Normand |
En el 2021, la incertidumbre sobre la recuperación económica causada por la pandemia generó un contexto de máximos históricos en los precios de minerales como el oro, plata, cobre y hierro; tendencia que se ha mantenido en los primeros meses de este año respecto al oro y el cobre debido, entre otros factores, a la guerra entre Rusia y Ucrania que los convierten en activos de refugio (oro) y la transición hacia una “economía verde” (cobre).
En efecto, en el caso específico del cobre, Goldman Sachs lo ha calificado como el “nuevo petróleo” y proyecta una tendencia alcista en su precio que lo podría llevar a US$ 6.8 por libra en el 2025, debido a un crecimiento rápido en la demanda y un déficit de suministros. Ello significaría, para un país como el nuestro que cuenta con minas en operación, en expansión y próximas a iniciar operaciones, una oportunidad invaluable para acortar brechas sociales, de desarrollo y de productividad. Es más, ya en el 2021 la tendencia alcista en el precio de los minerales permitió que las exportaciones mineras alcancen la cifra récord de US$39 mil millones, superior en 51% al año 2020 y en 40% al 2019, representando aproximadamente el 60% de las exportaciones nacionales totales.
Sin embargo, contrariamente a generar la competitividad necesaria en el sector que permita un aumento de la producción, venimos atravesando una escalada de conflictividad social que ha puesto en jaque la continuidad de actividades en diversas operaciones de la mediana y gran minería. De acuerdo con el último reporte de la Defensoría del Pueblo, de los 157 conflictos activos en nuestro país, 86 corresponden a conflictos relacionados con la actividad minera y que en su mayoría han desencadenado actos violentos, siendo los más representativos los de la comunidad de Tumilaca (Southern) y el corredor minero sur (Las Bambas y Antapaccay), que justamente son minas de cobre.
Entonces, nos encontramos frente a un escenario donde la inadecuada gestión de los conflictos nos lleva, por un lado, a una interrupción de la producción en minas que se encuentran en etapa de operación o expansión y, por otro, al freno a nuevas inversiones en exploración que permitan suplir el agotamiento futuro de las reservas. Ambos casos nos llevarían a desaprovechar este nuevo ciclo de precios con...
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